Shift of Political Trust in Ukraine during the War

The research aims to explain the recent shifts in the trust in state institutions and foresee further democratic performance in society. Since 2022, trust in institutions in Ukraine has drastically changed.  The importance of research is rooted in the democratic development of Ukraine and explains the main impediments to political trust in the time of war and the phenomena of the appearance of the new institutions that have gained the biggest trust during the war. The post examines the recent trends in political trust in Ukraine.

Ziel der Untersuchung ist es, die jüngsten Veränderungen im Vertrauen in staatliche Institutionen zu erklären und die weitere Entwicklung der Demokratie in der ukrainischen Gesellschaft vorherzusagen. Seit 2022 hat sich das Vertrauen in die Institutionen in der Ukraine drastisch verändert. Der Beitrag erklärt die Haupthindernisse für politisches Vertrauen in der Zeit des Krieges, die Phänomene des Auftretens neuer Institutionen, die das größte Vertrauen während des Krieges gewonnen haben und untersucht die jüngsten Trends im politischen Vertrauen in der Ukraine.

DOI: 10.34879/gesisblog.2025.89

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The main objective of the research is to understand what is happening in Ukraine with political trust during the war. It is assumed that poor decision-making in fighting corruption has become the main factor in decreasing political trust.  With a whole-scale war in Ukraine, corruption issues unfortunately continue to arise. This creates direct political dissatisfaction among the citizens of Ukraine. This topic is of high importance in Ukraine.  According to a recent Public Opinion Survey for the European Union Advisory Mission in Ukraine by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (September, 2023) the biggest demand in society is the fight against corruption. 90% of respondents include anti-corruption activities in the top 3 reforms to be carried out in Ukraine. Other top reforms are tasks related to war (77%) and reform of the judicial system (43%), power structures (51%), judicial system (50%), anti-corruption bodies and organizations (49%). Ukrainians critically assess the authorities’ efforts to carry out reforms – 71% consider the efforts insufficient and that the reforms are insufficiently covered in the media. Ukrainians find reforming anti-corruption bodies (45%), promoting intolerance to corruption in society (38%), and inviting foreign judges to work in Ukraine (33%) to be the main reformatory and educational measures. The top inquiry from Ukrainians to the EU consultation mission is the fight against corruption (46% ), prosecution for international crimes (38%), aid to the occupied territories (33%) and consultations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU. Ukrainians consider increasing criminal liability to life imprisonment (60% of respondents), implementing the confiscation of the property of the closest relatives of the corrupt (57%), limiting the business of public officials after dismissal from public authorities (45%) important steps to be taken by the state structures to fight corruption.

According to the authors, the factor that influences the support for democratic performance is political efficacy (Dalton, 2013; Torcal, 2006). Trust in public institutions of individuals defines their “external” political efficacy and plays an important role in supporting the performance of democracy. Trust in institutions reflects political support (Dalton, 2005) . Distrust of public institutions grows when people have definite policy preferences that they believe have gone unrepresented. Since 2022 trust in institutions has drastically changed. Data from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) and  Razumkov Centre’s Sociological Service confirm that the distrust in public institutions has decreased since 2022.  In all regions criticism of the authorities has increased. Recent data on Ukraine conducted in 2024 shows that the majority of respondents express distrust in the officials  (78.5% ), political parties (77.5%), the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (76%), courts (the judicial system in general) (73%), the Government of Ukraine (73 %), the Prosecutor’s Office (64%), the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (63%), the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (62%), the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (62%), commercial banks (58%).

The data show that Ukrainians express distrust in the state officials, political parties, parliament, courts, government, specialized anti-corruption prosecutor office, national anti-corruption bureau of Ukraine, and national agency for the prevention of corruption. Nevertheless, the majority of respondents do not support the idea of ​​holding national presidential or parliamentary elections in Ukraine before the war ends (Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). The negative attitude to elections during the war is caused by the belief that such elections may split Ukrainian society. On the other hand, Ukrainians appeared to have the highest trust in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (90% of respondents trust them), volunteer organizations (81%), and volunteer battalions (80%). The highest trust is expressed in the Chief Commander of Armed Forces V. Zaluzhnyi (88%). Summing up, during the war Ukrainians started expressing distrust in the state officials, political parties, parliament, courts, government, specialized anti-corruption prosecutor office, national anti-corruption bureau of Ukraine, and the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption. Poor decision-making in fighting corruption has become one of the main factors in decreasing political trust. The highest trust remains in the Armed Forces.  When Zelensky came into power in 2019, he got absolute support (73, 22%)  in Ukraine. After the first year of his presidency, Zelensky started steadily losing its support (with 51.5% trusting him in February 2020) according to Razumkov Centre. When the invasion began in February 2022, Zelensky performed a strong leadership position in resisting the aggressor and trust had significantly increased. However, nowadays the trust of Ukrainian citizens in President Volodymyr Zelenskyi decreased from 84% in December 2022 to 62% in December 2023  (Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). Nevertheless, the president maintains a high level of legitimacy. Among politicians, officials, and public figures respondents most often expressed trust in V. Zelenskyy (71%). The vast majority of the country’s population (73%) maintains trust in the President (2023).

References

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